2025-11-05
This dataset include 53 confirmed cases admitted from 2025-08-29 to 2025-09-25.
53% women and 9% children ≤5 years.
33 confirmed deaths reported for an average CFR of 62%.
Note
Interpretation note: Currently limited to 37 participants with available Ct value.
Note
Interpretation note: Currently limited to 37 participants with available Ct value.
| Symptom Grouping Used for Analysis | |
|---|---|
| Category | Variables |
| CNS signs | confusion_agitation, cephalee, conscience_alteree |
| Bleeding signs | hemorragie, hematemese, signes_cliniques_d_anemie |
| Gastrointestinal signs | nausees, douleur_abdominale, diarrhee, vomissements, anorexie, signes de malnutrition |
| Renal signs | insuffisance renale aigue |
| Respiratory signs | episode d'hypoxemie,difficulte respiratoires/essoufflement,toux |
Note
Method: Multivariable Poisson regression with robust standard errors was used to estimate adjusted risk ratios (aRR) and 95% confidence intervals.
| Variable | Reported | Relative Risk (95% CI) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duration of Infection (days) | 0.96 (0.92-1.01) | ↔︎ | |
| Choc | 16/37 | 2.04 (1.07-3.89) | ⬆ |
| Respiratory Signs | 24/37 | 2.24 (1.09-4.62) | ⬆ |
| Bleeding Signs | 12/37 | 1.13 (0.45-2.8) | ↔︎ |
| Antibiotherapy | 14/37 | 0.79 (0.37-1.67) | ↔︎ |
| MAb114 | 15/37 | 0.86 (0.37-1.96) | ↔︎ |
Note
Method: Multivariable Poisson regression with robust standard errors was used to estimate adjusted risk ratios (aRR) and 95% confidence intervals.
| Final LASSO-Selected Logistic Regression: EVD Outcome | |||||||||||
| Multivariable model including LASSO-selected predictors | |||||||||||
| Characteristic | N | Present | Event N | OR | 95% CI | p-value | Significance1 | Direction | Unadjusted RR2 | Adjusted Risk Ratio (95% CI)3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duration of Infection (days) | 37 | 19 | 0.89 | 0.78, 0.98 | 0.033 | * | ⬇ | 0.96 (0.92-1.01) | |||
| Choc Signs | 37 | 16 | 19 | 9.25 | 1.32, 109 | 0.040 | * | ⬆ | 2.25 | 2.04 (1.07-3.89) | |
| Respiratory Signs | 37 | 24 | 19 | 6.39 | 0.79, 80.6 | 0.10 | ⬆ | 2.89 | 2.24 (1.09-4.62) | ||
| Bleeding Signs | 37 | 12 | 19 | 2.66 | 0.32, 29.5 | 0.38 | ⬆ | 2.31 | 1.13 (0.45-2.8) | ||
| Antibiotherapy | 37 | 14 | 19 | 0.48 | 0.00, 47.1 | 0.78 | ⬇ | 0.44 | 0.79 (0.37-1.67) | ||
| MAb114 | 37 | 15 | 19 | 0.87 | 0.01, 116 | 0.96 | ⬇ | 0.52 | 0.86 (0.37-1.96) | ||
| Abbreviations: CI = Confidence Interval, OR = Odds Ratio, NA | |||||||||||
| 1 Odds ratios (OR) obtained by exponentiating the logistic regression coefficients (β). OR > 1 indicates increased odds of the outcome; OR < 1 indicates decreased odds. | |||||||||||
| 2 Raw risk ratios (RR) were calculated as the ratio of the risk of death among participants with the condition (Yes) versus without the condition (No). | |||||||||||
| 3 Adjusted risk ratios (RR) obtained from Poisson regression with robust standard errors. RR > 1 indicates increased risk; RR < 1 indicates decreased risk. | |||||||||||
⚠️ Caution: The effect of Duration of infection may be misleading — shorter duration can imply severe cases with rapid death.
Note
Method: We used a Weibull proportional hazards model to estimate survival probabilities over time.
Important
Note: Forest plot showing relative effects of covariates on survival time estimated from a Weibull proportional hazards model. HR > 1 indicates shorter survival (faster occurrence of the event), HR < 1 indicates longer survival. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.
EVD - Bulape 2025